FIDE World Cup R3: Vachier-Lagrave Wins Thriller, Gukesh Eliminated

Tournament Information

The FIDE World Cup is one of the most prestigious events of the chess calendar every two years. It is the largest knockout tournament and awards three Candidates spots to the first three finishers. 206 players are playing the tournament, with each round only growing in intensity. The time control is 90+30 for the first 40 moves, with an extra 30 minutes after move 40. Matches are played in sets of two: first, a classical portion of 2 games. If the result remains tied, the players play 15+10 games, then, if still tied, 10+10 games, then 5+3, then 3+2, and finally, if still tied, a deciding Armageddon game.

Watch and replay all the games in our broadcast.

Pairings for Round 4

The pairings for round 4 are available here.

Overview

GM Frederik Svane eliminated world champion GM Gukesh D after the former was able to defeat him as Black in their second game encounter. GM Anish Giri and GM Nodirbek Abdusattorov are also out of the tournament after losing to GM Alexander Donchenko and GM José Martínez Alcántara, respectively. GM Sam Shankland got the best of GM Vidit Santosh Gujrathi, while GM Maxime Vachier-Lagrave narrowly escaped exiting the World Cup after winning his Armageddon game against GM Vladislav Artemiev.

Interviews

Make sure to check out all of our interviews from the World Cup on our YouTube channel!

GM Maxime Vachier-Lagrave:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdcnLYrlf4Y

GM Sam Shankland:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hX8wgfBMAdo

Classical Upsets

GM Frederik Svane vs. GM Gukesh D

The first round game between world champion GM Gukesh D and GM Fredeik Svane went very smoothly for Black, with GM Gukesh holding a draw rather comfortably. There was one chance for Svane to play for more with 22. Nxe7+, but he eschewed that option in favor of 22. Ba3.

This pairs' second encounter went in a completely opposite direction: Svane, as Black, had the advantage for most of the game. In a complicated Giuco Pianissimo of the Italian Game, Svane, with less than 15 minutes on the clock, played the courageous 18...d5!, equalizing the position and potentially playing for more. Later on in the endgame, the position remained equal, but Gukesh missed a powerful resource for Svane, 39...g3+!, which threatens the creation of an advanced passed pawn. The resulting endgame was just too difficult for White to hold, even objectively speaking, and Gukesh had to resign on move 55.

GM Frederik Svane vs. GM Gukesh D
Photo: Eteri Kublashvili / FIDE

Watch our interview with GM Frederik Svane:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=waY-97Xuv5Y

GM Alexander Donchenko vs. GM Anish Giri

GM Alexander Donchenko's match against GM Anish Giri went similarly to the aforementioned match between Gukesh and Svane, but with colors reversed. Their first game saw Donchenko hold as Black without too many issues. In the second game, Donchenko struck as White after being better for most of the game and dismantling Giri's Nimzo-Indian Defense quite well. It has to be noted that Giri did equalize the game on move 32 after Donchenko's 32. f5? move, but he soon blundered with 36. Qd7??, allowing 37. f6!!, winning due to the threat of f7+, followed by Qxh6# after Kh8.

GM Alexander Donchenko vs. GM Anish Giri
Photo: Michal Walusza / FIDE

Watch our interview with GM Alexander Donchenko:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGAWJBVv8JM

GM José Martínez Alcántara vs. GM Nodirbek Abdusattorov

GM José Martínez Alcántara's unorthodox Philidor Defense seemed to be a good choice against GM Nodirbek Abdusattorov as at some point Black technically equalized. However, Abdusattorov played a creative exchange sacrifice and soon had a big advantage after inaccurate play from Martínez. It was then Abdusattorov who could not find a good setup for his pieces, though, and Martínez capitalized on his opponent's imprecision by launching a quick and devastating counterattack.

In a must-win game, Abdusattorov chose the Sicilian Defense, but Martínez played the solid if not slightly drawish Alapin, aiming to avoid the wild complications that could arise from more traditional Sicilians. The game remained complicated, but Abdusattorov never had any real advantage. Just as the game seemed to be headed toward a draw, which is equivalent to a loss for Abdusattorov, Abdusattorov blundered, allowing White to keep his extra piece and thus win the game.

Watch our interview with GM José Martínez Alcántara:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTVEZpIZ1ic

More Upsets

Other rating upsets included GM Nils Grandelius defeating GM Shakhriyar Mamedyarov 1.5-0.5 after the latter blundered away a winning position, GM Lorenzo Lodici continuing his amazing run, eliminating GM Michael Adams 1.5-0.5, and GM Radosław Wojtaszek getting the best of GM Vladimir Fedoseev with two wins:

Watch our interview with GM Radosław Wojtaszek:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1x7Vqu1HOg

Watch our interview with GM Lorenzo Lodici:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5AXcR-gqhE

Tiebreak Upsets

GM Sam Shankland vs. GM Vidit Santosh Gujrathi

In contrast to the classical portion of their match, GM Sam Shankland and GM Vidit Santosh Gujrathi played a topsy-turvy tiebreak match. In an endgame where Shankland had a winning position, an inaccurate piece block with 59. Nb4 allowed Vidit's queen to infiltrate and, just a few moves later, cause White's position to collapse.

Shankland bounced back in game 2, however, with another victory for the Philidor Defense, and that in a rook endgame, a topic he has extensively written about in his book "Theoretical Rook Endgames".

After a calm draw in their first game of the 10+10 portion, Shankland finished the match off with yet another chaotic game, proving that the bishop pair, and, ultimately, a single bishop, is better than the knight.

GM Sam Shankland vs. GM Vidit Santosh Gujrathi
Photo: Michal Walusza / FIDE

Other tiebreak upsets include GM Karthik Venkataraman's win against GM Bogdan-Daniel Deac as well as GM Alexey Sarana's win against GM Jorden van Foreest. Karthik missed some chances in his first game against Deac, but he was able to rectify his mistake by winning game 2, where he again had an advantage for much of the game. Sarana's match against Van Foreest saw more twists and turns, with Van Foreest managing to bounce back in game 2 of the classical portion after losing game 1. Sarana, however, won game 1 and 2 of the rapid tiebreak without giving Van Foreest too many chances.

Watch our interview with GM Karthik Venkataraman:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJ3PLo9O4cQ

Near-Upsets

GM Maxime Vachier-Lagrave vs. GM Vladislav Artemiev

GM Maxime Vachier-Lagrave's match against GM Vladislav Artemiev was an absolute thriller and had chess fans around the world on the edge of their seats. After drawing two very even classical games, Vachier-Lagrave had a very good chance to win game 1 of the rapid tiebreaks, but he ultimately could not and later drew another calm game. Games 5 and 6 of the 10+10 portion of the match were similarly tepid, but in the 5+3 section, Artemiev drew first blood in a complicated rook endgame, which Vachier-Lagrave was in fact winning.

In a match where time management was the overarching theme, Vachier-Lagrave was able to keep the match going after winning game 2.

Artemiev won the first game of the mini-match yet again, playing a fine positional game out of the Symmetrical English.

Vachier-Lagrave once again bounced back, this time winning a rook endgame when Artemiev had seconds on the clock.

In a surprising decision considering the time trouble he experienced through the match, Artemiev decided to bid 2 minutes and 43 seconds against Vachier-Lagrave's 4 minutes 3 seconds in the deciding Armageddon game. The game went in Vachier-Lagrave's favor with almost no hurdles along the way.

GM Maxime-Vachier Lagrave vs. GM Vladislav Artemiev
Photo: Michal Walusza / FIDE

GM Andrey Esipenko vs. GM Pouya Idani

GM Pouya Idani won his first classical game against GM Andrey Esipenko, forcing Esipenko to win on demand, which he was able to do as he played spectacularly in a 2R+B vs. 2R+B endgame.

After trading blows (game 1 and game 2) in the 15+10 portion of the match, and following a staid draw, Esipenko won a model positional game, clinching match victory.

Honorable Mentions

14-year-old GM Yağız Kaan Erdoğmuş certainly had GM Richárd Rapport on the ropes. Despite losing game 1 in a highly unconventional Nyezhmetdinov-Rossolimo Attack of the Sicilian Defense typical of Rapport's style, Erdoğmuş found a way to outplay Rapport in game 2 and was completely winning. A series of checks allowed forced an error from Erdoğmuş, though, who was forced to trade a pair of pawns and thus saw his chances of winning the game evaporate.

GM Richárd Rapport vs. GM Yağız Kaan Erdoğmuş
Photo: Michal Walusza / FIDE

The Rating-Expected Results

GM Arjun Erigaisi vs. GM Shamsiddin Vokhidov

GM Arjun Erigaisi showed very deep preparation against GM Shamsiddin Vokhidov, creating chaos on the board in what is one of the most solid openings in chess.

Watch our interview with GM Arjun Erigaisi:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzCrAGtcdtE

Their second game, on the other hand, was a much more solid draw — not without chances for Arjun, though — as Arjun needed only a draw to qualify.

GM Praggnanandhaa R vs. GM Robert Hovhannisyan

GM Praggnanandhaa R's match against GM Robert Hovhannisyan started off with a very correct "grandmaster draw," ending in just 30 moves. In their second game, Praggnanandhaa's exchange sacrifice against Hovhannisyan almost went up in flames as the latter found a precise sequence, namely, 21...Bf6 and 22...Qg6, putting immediate pressure on White's position. Praggnanandhaa's passed pawns created a lot of problems for Hovhannisyan, though, and just a couple of inaccurate moves later, Hovhannisyan's position collapsed.

GM Praggnanandhaa R vs. GM Robert Hovhannisyan
Photo: Michal Walusza / FIDE

GM Vincent Keymer vs. GM Pranesh M

GM Vincent Keymer missed some chances in his first round game against GM Pranesh M, but he righted the ship with an aesthetically pleasing maneuvering round 2 game.

Watch our interview with GM Vincent Keymer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gC4hgQ3OLSU

More Results

GM Pranav V won his match against GM Titas Stremavicius after winning a 102-move game 1. Meanwhile, GM Gabriel Sargissian played a strong positional game after surviving a losing position in his first game against GM Diptayan Ghosh. GM Levon Aronian and GM Lê Quang Liêm both capitalized on their opponent's inaccuracies with stunning precision: Levon & Lê Quang.

Simulated Predictions

We once again simulated the tournament outcome a million times, including the results from previous rounds.

• Who is most likely to win the tournament outright?

• Who is most likely to get in the top 3?

• Who is most likely to qualify for the Candidates?

Aside from these stats:

• Highest chance to win: Keymer 10.7 % (up from 9.1)
• Chances to qualify for Candidates: 24.8 % (Erigaisi), 23.9 % (Keymer) 23.1 % (Lê Quang Liêm)
• Chance for the 4th placed player to qualify: 9.1 % (this is now equal to Blübaum placing in the top 3)
• Leko vs Keymer game: 0.7% (up from 0.3)
• The chance of an Indian player winning is: 22.7 % (down from 25.7)
• The chance of a German player winning is: 15.2 % (up from 10.9)
• The chance of an American player winning is: 11.7 % (up from 8.2)
• The chance of a Chinese player winning is: 11.5 % (up from 8.5)
• Alliterative* player win: 14.8 % (up from 10.1)
• Chance of a sub 2700 winner: 26.3 % (up from 19.2; the favorites keep losing)
• Chance of a sub 2600 winner: 0.3 % (slightly down)
• Chance of a sub 2700 qualifier: 75.1 % (up from 72.0)
• Chance of 2 sub 2700 qualifiers: 30.6 % (up from 27.3)
• Chance of a sub 2600 qualifier: 2.2 % (down from 4.3)

*first and last name start with the same letter or sound (e.g. Richard Rapport and Yu Yangyi)